Liverpool v Manchester Utd match stats – Jan ’16

The market has Liverpool as favourites for this very important fixture for both these sides and while my numbers also agree with that, the market may be a little too short on the home side offering a small bit of value in the Match Odds market, for the visitors.

Livepool v Man Utd

Liverpool v Manchester United

Selection Calculated Price
Decimal     Percentage
Best Bookmakers Price

Decimal      Percentage

% Value Bookmaker
Liverpool 2.52 39.68% 2.41 41.49% -1.81% Marathonbet
Draw 3.51 28.49% 3.4 29.41% -0.92% Betfred, Totesport
Manchester Und 3.14 31.85% 3.4 29.41% 2.44% Betfair

 

The head to head records certainly support the claim that the home side could be a little too short, the Red Devils have won six of the last eight meetings and there has only been one draw between the side (1-1 October 2011) in their last 20 league meetings.  Goals are often on the cards when these two meet with seven of the last eight having a result that produced over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in five of the last eight.  At Anfield, United have failed to score in just three of their last 10 visits and have won two of the last four, the home side wining one and one draw.

Last 20 Head to Head League Fixtures
22.01.’06 Manchester United 1-0 Liverpool
22.10.’06 Manchester United 2-0 Liverpool
03.03.’07 Liverpool 0-1 Manchester United
16.12.’07 Liverpool 0-1 Manchester United
23.03.’08 Manchester United 3-0 Liverpool
13.09.’08 Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United
14.03.’09 Manchester United 1-4 Liverpool
25.10.’09 Liverpool 2-0 Manchester United
21.03.’10 Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool
19.09.’10 Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool
06.03.’11 Liverpool 3-2 Manchester United
15.10.’11 Liverpool 1-1 Manchester United
11.02.’12 Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool
23.09.’12 Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United
13.01.’13 Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool
01.09.’13 Liverpool 1-0 Manchester United
16.03.’14 Manchester United 0-3 Liverpool
14.12.’14 Manchester United 3-0 Liverpool
22.03.’15 Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United
12.09.’15 Manchester United 3-1 Liverpool

 

After what happened midweek when both these sides were involved in very entertaining 3-3 draws, I was surprised to see both teams to score priced at 2.0 (evens) with Corals, I am not sure that will last very long especially as the rest of the firms are around 1.95 (20/21) at best.

Liverpool have conceded 14 goals at Anfield in just 10 home games, giving away on average 1.4 goals per game, that is more than any other side in the top half of the Premier League.  With the exception of Everton (conceded 20 in 10 games at Goodison), it is more than any club outside the bottom eight.  70% of Liverpool’s home games and 50% of United ‘s away games have been level at the break, the last six league games at Anfield have ALL been level at the break.  You can back the half time draw @ 11/10 (2.1 Decimal) with Stan James.  Or if you want to be a bit more adventurous, with just the one draw in this fixture out of the last 20, dutch backing Draw Half Time and Liverpool Full time @ 6/1 and Draw Half Time and Manchester United Full time @ 8/1 would pay approx 3/1 (3.94 Decimal)     

90% of Games at Anfield this season have seen at least one second half goal, the only game that failed to produce a goal in this period was the first home game of the season against Bournemouth.  This could present opportunities for any in play punters who are looking to oppose the current score as time decays in the second half and the price of the current score starts to drop on the betting exchanges.

Date HomeTeam AwayTeam Full Time Correct Score Full Time Result Half Time Correct Score Half Time Result
17-08-15 Liverpool Bournemouth 1 0 H 1 0 H
29-08-15 Liverpool West Ham 0 3 A 0 2 A
20-09-15 Liverpool Norwich 1 1 D 0 0 D
26-09-15 Liverpool Aston Villa 3 2 H 1 0 H
25-10-15 Liverpool Southampton 1 1 D 0 0 D
08-11-15 Liverpool Crystal Palace 1 2 A 1 1 D
29-11-15 Liverpool Swansea 1 0 H 0 0 D
13-12-15 Liverpool West Brom 2 2 D 1 1 D
26-12-15 Liverpool Leicester 1 0 H 0 0 D
13-01-16 Liverpool Arsenal 3 3 D 2 2 D

 

Only four teams have managed to score before the break at Anfield this season (West Ham, Crystal Palace, West Brom and Arsenal) but on each occasion they did concede in the opening period, Liverpool failed to win the game.

While Manchester United boast the best defensive record in the Premier League at home, conceding just four goals and keeping seven clean sheets.  On the road it is a different story, conceding 16 goals and only keeping three clean sheets and they are now without a win in their last four away days.  

The Reds have only failed to score once on home soil this season and that was back in August against West Ham.  While Louis Van Gaal’s men, despite getting a reputation for boring football, have scored seven in their last five on the road and only failed to score away on three occasions this season ( Swansea, Crystal Palace and Stoke City)

According to reports defeat against Liverpool will see the end of Louis Van Gaal in the hot seat at Old Trafford, already hot favourite at 1/2 with BetVictor to be the next manager to leave his post.  If you think Liverpool will win this then potentially backing Van Gaal in this market could reap quick rewards, with the safety net that he will be gone soon anyway.  

Liverpool at home have only faced four sides at home that currently reside above them in the league, they have lost two and won one of those four encounters, conceding eight goals.  Home and away against such opposition they have won three out of 10… 

Liverpool v Home Away
Arsenal 3-3 0-0
Leicester City 1-0  
Manchester City   1-4
Tottenham Hotspur   0-0
West Ham United 0-3 2-0
Manchester United   3-1
Stoke City   0-1
Crystal Palace 1-2  

 

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